4 races to go….3 spots remaining

Yesterday at the Brickyard 400, driver Bubba Wallace was able to end a 100 race winless drought dating back to fall Kansas 2022 and solidify a spot in the NASCAR playoffs. It was a feel good story for all and a long time coming for Wallace who was sitting on the bubble coming into the race. This win makes Bubba the 13th different winner this season and it came at the right time as with now 4 races left until the playoffs, he can breathe easier knowing that he’s locked in.

However for 23XI teammate Tyler Reddick, while he is 138 points above the cut line…..there still is an opportunity for him to miss the playoffs. There’s 4 races left (Iowa, The Glen, Richmond, and Daytona) that can all very well give us a new winner that can give us a possible 17 winners before the playoffs start. Reddick is also 71 points behind regular season point leader Chase Elliot, which is also important because the regular season champion gets an automatic playoff spot and despite a 29th place finish, Reddick still has a shot with help of course.

Then you have Alex Bowman who is 63 points above the cut line which is just over a full race advantage but with the schedule coming up, if we get enough winners he could get bounced quicker than Reddick, but there’s still a easier chance to not make it on points as well. It helps that Bowman has won at Richmond before but anything can honestly happen. He has gotten 4 top 10 finishes in the last 5 races.

This brings us now to the last spot above the cut line and the first spot below. Should things stay consistent and we have no new winners, it looks like it could come down to Chris Buescher against fellow RFK teammate Ryan Preece. Preece has finished top ten every other race since Nashville along with getting critical stage points and stage wins. Chris hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since the Coke 600 but the stage wins haven’t came. I expect Preece to show a strong showing at Richmond and Iowa, while Chris has won at Daytona, Richmond, and as recent as last year Watkins Glen. If Chris has a slip up and Preece is able to capitalize then I can see this fight going down to the wire but neither driver can afford a new winner.

Now onto some guys who I believe can be an upset winner moving closer to the playoffs. Despite the mishaps, you can still never count out Kyle Busch. Last year Kyle Busch fell short of winning his way into the playoffs in the last two races of the regular season by losing to Harrison Burton at Daytona, and Chase Briscoe at Darlington. Busch did have more speed last year than it seems he does this year and while he was making a points run he ultimately was dealt a bad blow when he sustained damage on a restart yesterday. He has won at every track left before the playoffs in Cup with the exception of Iowa but if he wants to race in the playoffs this year, he will either need a lot of luck or RCR will have to throw the kitchen sink at the 8 team.

Despite a rough start to the year Ty Gibbs has been gaining a lot of points and race by race I am learning that he is going to be a force on the road courses. A 7th at Sonoma and a 2nd at Chicago street show that. He was also the 2nd strongest car at Mexico City before getting caught on the wrong side of a caution during pit cycles but with Watkins Glen coming up I think that’s Gibbs best shot at winning his way into the playoffs.

Micheal McDowell is in win or bust mode for the rest of the season rather he makes the same playoffs or not. His driving mentality suits him well for the situation that he is in as the driver isn’t scared to make bold moves and neither is Spire. McDowell is also a strong road course and superspeedway racer as he has won Daytona before, along with the fact that he had a very good shot at winning the Chicago Street Race before engine issues. I think Daytona and Watkins Glen are his two biggest shots if he wants to make the playoffs.

My last guy that I could see winning a race is Carson Hocervar. Carson had a shot at winning Michigan before a tire let go late in that race in heartbreaking fashion. He’s shown that he has the speed but the luck isn’t always there. His aggressive nature can be both a blessing and a curse but he may need to be more aggressive than he ever has if he wants to win a spot into the playoffs. The issue though is he has made a lot of enemies on the race track. I do think his best shot at winning will be Daytona and possibly Iowa.

With that being said, there’s currently a driver with a playoff berth and a win that should be a little nervous and that is Josh Berry. If we get to 17 winners, or if we get 16 winners and Tyler Reddick wins the regular season title then the lowest running guy in points with 1 win would be out. That currently is Josh Berry who sits 21st. SVG is 22 points behind him in 27th but he has 3 wins. Out of drivers that I believe still have a chance to win, Carson is the only guy lower than Berry in points and that’s only by 4. Now it will be hard for there to be 4 new winners at these 4 tracks considering just about every track has been dominated by someone who has already won this year, but crazier things have happened. That is why I believe Berry can’t rest easy yet until at least the end at the Glen.