One last shot

From the Daytona 500, to the Coke 600, to the Chicago street race, to the thriller at Homestead, this whole entire season has had its twists and turns. It’s given 8 drivers the opportunity to fight for a championship. For 4 of these guys, that all ends after the conclusion of the Xfinity 500 on Sunday. Two drivers are locked into the final 4 with those two being Joey Logano, and Tyler Reddick. Christopher Bell and William Byron hold the last two transfer sports being ahead by +29 and +7 respectively. The drivers on the outside looking in are Kyle Larson (-7), Denny Hamlin (-18), Ryan Blaney (-38), and Chase Elliot (-43). What makes it even more impressive is that all of these guys have wins at this track and have put up recent impressive performances at this track so we could be in for a “game7 moment” this Sunday.

With that said, there’s also a added unknown entering Sunday as NASCAR has decided to use the option tire that was used at the all star race and at Richmond, as the new right side tire for this race. With it only being used for the right side in hopes of more tire wear it will be interesting to see how teams navigate that. Also the fall Martinsville races have been less tame than the spring races at least ever since the Next Gen debuted in 2022 and with this being one of the strongest round of 8s on top of going to what seems like one of their stronger tracks, I’m expecting so crazy moments.

While nobody is locked into the next round outside of Reddick and Logano, Bell scoring stage points would help him secure a spot as if one of the other guys win, he would still be the highest scored on points thus advancing him. He had a 35th place finish in the spring which is concerning if you’re a Bell fan, but Bell also won in 2022 in a must win situation. Who knows history may repeat itself.

William Byron was off to a hot start this year winning 3 times by mid April, but has yet to find victory lane since. He has a few wins at this track including the win in the spring of this year and finds himself in a similar position as last year when it came to advancing to the championship round. He wasn’t able to advance to the championship last year but could this year be different? He’s +7 over his teammate Kyle Larson for the final position and I’m sure he’s hungry for win number 4 on the season.

This now brings us to the guys who are on the outside looking in, starting with Kyle Larson. The dominant car and championship favorite for most of the year finds himself 7 points below the cut line to be able to fight for a championship. The checkers or wreckers type of playoff run that Larson has had this year, especially this round has landed him in this position. He’s been able to win to advance out of each round but there’s a large chance that he will have to win to advance because the guy who he’s up against is William Byron who beat Larson in the spring while he finished p2. While Larson is no stranger to winning and has himself a Martinsville clock as well, this might be his toughest elimination race yet. Especially with the other three drivers that I haven’t gotten to with one of them, this racetrack is their home track.

Denny Hamlin is no stranger to winning at this track leading all active drivers with 5. He started off 2024 looking like this could finally be the year that he wins that elusive championship. The performance has tapered off since his win at Dover in the spring but he’s still done enough to get to this point. An 11th place run here in the spring isn’t that impressive but he did manage to get a stage win. He’s going to have to really get stage points on top of taking the fight to the HMS guys if he has a shot at moving on because again this is tough company. He’s also has to battle against the defending Cup series champion for a transfer spot.

Which brings us to Ryan Blaney. Blaney is 38 points below the cut line and also fresh off a last lap error that saw him leave the outside lane open and allowed Tyler Reddick to make a last turn pass to advance himself into the final 4. Blaney had a strong car especially towards the end of the race and looked to have the race won….at least that’s how it looked. Blaney is no stranger to the challenge that he faces which is basically a must win situation. He was in this same situation last year and was able to hold off Denny Hamlin and win to advance into the round of 4 where he went on to win the championship. If Blaney wants to defend his crown, he’s going to have to put on a encore performance.

Now onto the lowers scored driver below the cut line, Chase Elliot. Elliot also had a strong car last week as he spent a lot of time battling with Ryan Blaney for the lead, on top of leading many laps, but the car started fading late on top of a late race caution which hampered his chances at a win. A crash at Las Vegas definitely put him in a deep hole in which he hasn’t been able to recover from which puts him in a must win situation. Chase won this race in 2020 advancing him into the final 4 and then went on to win the championship that year as well so if you’re an Elliot fan you probably hope history repeats itself there. Chase also led laps at Martinsville in the spring in route to a 3rd place finish, and on top of carrying momentum from a bounce back weekend like last weekend, the 9 team is pretty solid here.

This Xfinity 500 could be one for the ages with all the guys fighting for a championship that drive around this place like they own it. Nobody is truly safe from being eliminated if they haven’t won a race yet either, but with essentially 3 drivers in a do or die situation, we could see some bold moves on Sunday and I’m here for it.